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TV and radio programs

TVRL Program: Book Story 15  minutes interviewed by the  journalist Marie Brassard.

Literacy program featuring new books and their author. Montréal,Canada

Available on YouTube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=D7g 7a3ke764#t=437

 

Canal Argent : The author was invited to give an  interview for the news program. Canal Argent is TV channel  specialized in finance news.

Radio Centre Ville : Morning program. Interviewed by the journalist Nathalie Turgeon. Montréal,Canada.

Available on YouTube :https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWiJmktth0A& 
Radio CV1

 

France

Interviewed by Jean Baptiste Collet!and and Raphaël Berland in Paris, France.

CDV Web News: National and international news, finance and politics.

Int Paris

 

Canada

CBC New Brunswick,  Chaine National Radio-Canada

Interviewed by Anne Godin,Edmunston,New Brunswick, Canada.

 

Link!:!http://ici.radio-canada.ca/emissions/Tou t_Un_Samedi/2013O 2014/archives.asp?date= 2014O04O05

Interviewed for Bouquins  Plus during the Montreal Book Fair,Montréal,Canada.

Available on YouTube : https://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=VfsKCLO WI44# page5image8312 page5image8472 page5image8632 page5image8792 page5image8952 page5image9112

Interviewed by Solang !Casier,  Montréal, Canada

Available on YouTube :https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=ySJuTREWzzY

Planète Radio, 99.5 FM
 Morning program, interviewed by Louis Arcand, morning man page6image7312 page6image7472

Press Paper and Internet

News paper: Le Progrès  de St-Léonard 1⁄2 page in page 3, interviewed by Jean-Simon Fabien, journalist. Montréal,Canada.

http://www.progresst leonard.com/Vie de  quartier/2013O10O 30/article 3456550/Cyberintimidation Andree Decarie informe/1

 

Magazine Le Livre d’ici. Interviewed by Pascal Genêt, journaliste.

Progres

 

 

Official Book Launch of Oil Last Call: February 21, 2013 at La Tabla Restaurant, 1329 Ste-Catherine East Street, from 5 to 8 PM.

February 2013

The author AndréeDécarieinvites you to the official launch of her first thriller called: Oil Last Call, China, Russia, Cuba, Venezuela, the Pyka Group.Thursday, February 21, 2013 from 5 to 8 PM at La Tabla Restaurant, 1329, Ste-Catherine East. MétroBeaudry.

The author Andrée Décarie is invited at the TV show: Histoire delivres

December 2012

AndréeDécariehas been interviewed by the program presenter Marie Brassard atthe TV show Histoire de livresat the channel TVRL.  AndréeDécariehas introduced her novel called Oil Last Call, China, Russia, Cuba, Venezuela, thePyka Group.  The interview recorded in December 2012 can be viewed in Youtubeat the following address (in French):

Conference – Place Bonaventure: Why Oil prices always go up?

November 2012

AndréeDécarie, author of the book Oil Last Call made a presentation on the Peak Oil.

The presentation covered the formation of petroleum, the world oil reserves, the daily consumption, the relations between the oil production and discoveries, the geopolitical issues and an outlook of the future.

Andrée Décarie in book dedicationsessionsat the Salon du livre de Montréal.

November 2012

Andrée Décarie has introduced her first novel called Oil Last Call, China, Russia, Cuba, Venezuela, the Pika Group at the Salon du livre de Montréal.  AndréeDécariepresented her book at the Alliance Québécoise des éditeursindépendantsbooth and at the Benjamin Book retailer booth for several book dedication sessions.

_________________________________

What is Peak Oil?

           When will we reach peak oil?

          Peak oil in Davos, Oh Yes that’s it, Oh! no it is not

          Thor, god of electricity, save us!

          Where does oil come from?

What is Peak Oil?

The first oil drilling took place in U.S. and USSR in the mid of 19th century.  The industrial revolution was already well in place with the use of steam engines powered by coal.  In 1860, a German engineer invented a combustion engine.  At first, it used benzene distilled from coal before the switch to oil.  In 1882, the first vehicles have appeared on the roads.  The oil industry took over.  Oil is an extremely dense product.  This is one of the most important discoveries of our modern time.  One barrel of oil is equivalent to 25,000 hours of energy.

Oil has changed our lives.  It’s precious and non-renewable.  Oil is not only used for transportation, 70% of it is used for different kinds of transportation.  The remaining 30% is used for other purpose in our lives.  For example field fertilization with petrochemical substance highly increases land agriculture.  Power plants run on oil.  By-product plastic is produced from petroleum.  Oil is used in pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries.  98% of the entire transportation industry such as cars, trucks, planes, trains, boats and so on use oil.

In the last 30 years, we have developed an advanced technology for oil exploration.  All places on earth have already been explored.  It’s been a long time since no significant oil reserve has been discovered.  The situation being what it is right now with the beginning of the descent of the world oil production, we turn now to the known reserves not yet exploited. They are extremely difficult to exploit.

 

The Hubbert peak

Dr. MK Hubbert, an American, studied oil reserves and its utilization for 50 years.  In 1956, using mathematics, he clearly demonstrated that we would run out of oil if we followed the same growth using this resource.  Furthermore, Dr. Hubbert was not yet aware of the economic boom of India and China.  In fact, oil demand has been much larger than expected.  Everyone believed oil was a finite resource always available. So we invested in the development of engineering for oil production and almost nothing in development of alternative energy.  All Dr Hubbert predictions arrived and were confirmed by many experts as Russians and Americans.

The best example is the Texas oil in the United States.  Did you know that in 1950, United States was the leading oil producer in the world?  Before the Middle East.  In Mc Camey, Texas in 1930, there was oil all over under the ground.  People thought there would always be always like that.  Today, there is no more oil in this part of Texas.  The Middle East has increased their oil production due to the fact that U.S. reserves have declined.  This scenario was described by Dr. Hubbert and has specified  the exact year; 1970.  The decrease in oil production in United States has also caused panic amongst people.

Seizing the opportunity, Arabic countries unhappy with U.S. policy toward Israeli-Palestinian conflict, did make a turn to the oil tap. This has been called the oil crash of the 70’s.  The price of oil has increased and this gave us a glimpse of our dependency and vulnerability on oil.  At that time oil production in the Middle East was growing. We know very well our daily consumption in millions of barrels. Oil available will be missingand by 2030 there will be no more.

 

The peak of discoveries

Dr. Hubbert’s curve refers to two peaks before the decline in oil production.  The oil industry has two main steps; oil discovery and production.  Why two curves? Because between the oil discovery and production, there is the implementation of infrastructure for pumping the liquid and the drilling platform.  It’s been a long time, more than 25 years that no significant oil discovery has been made.  So we can say that the peak of oil discovery has been met a long time ago.  According to experts, the peak of discovery arrived around the year 1981.  Since then, we are consuming oil faster than the volume of new oil fields discovered.  The oil used has not been replaced by new layers.

What Dr. Hubbert has shown is that there is a mathematical relationship between peak discovery and peak production.  It’s quite logical given that the oil extracted was coming from reserves already discovered.  The production Peak is identified when the oil field achieves half of its original volume.

 

The peak of oil production

Once this peak is reached; there is a plateau in production for a period of time. estimated between two to four years, mainly caused by additional extraction equipment in existing wells.  The rising of oil price has an impact on the economy and on oil demand which is helping to maintain the plateau for a longer period.

During this period we are facing high price volatility. The barrel prices of crude oil going up and down in a week or on a daily basis, but the trend are upward for sure.  This is what is happening in recent years.  When the curve of oil production begins to fall, experts predict a decrease rate of 4 to 7% per year. The rate of decline in production will increase over the years, according to the mathematical model of Hubbert.  In fact, when half of the reserves are reached, the other half runs out much faster.  Thisphenomenon is found in several oil fields that have already reached their production peak (USA-1970, United Kingdom – 2000, Norway-2006).

The Hubbert model applies to all natural resources.  It was therefore determined that the production peak of natural gas arrived few years after the oil peak (5 to 10 years).

 

The important issue

The transition phase must be managed to mitigate the extraordinary impacts on our societies caused by the depletion of oil and natural gas.  In industrialized countries, oil and natural gas produce 75% of the energy consumed in our societies.  A study in U.S. by a group of scientists concluded that to mitigate the effects of the depletion of oil production we should have taken action 20 years ago.  The important question is not to know the exact date of oil peak but what to do today to cope with the lack of natural resources. The big shock is coming.

 

When will we reach oil peak?

For many experts we are already there since 2006 (ASPO USA meeting Matt Simmons, October 2006). What has happened in 2006? For the first time in the history of mankind, the oil industry could not extract an equivalent volume of oil than the previous day to meet the global demand with the existing current production equipment.

What does that mean? This particular situation indicates that we have already consumed to date half of the world oil reserves. From this point, we are now on the downslope.  From this moment there are no additional quantities of oil available.  The price of a barrel of crude oil rose considerably. (April 2006 to 75.17 U.S. dollars a barrel, average price around $ 62 U.S.).

What the oil industry did?  In 2007, the Petroleum Exporting Countries struggled to meet the demand.  They decided to add production facilities in existing wells.  More than a barrel of oil is extracted the following day but the total amount continues to decrease every month.  We pump the oil faster to meet global demand but it also means that we went to the bottom faster than expected.  Pressure was released on production and the price of oil went down a bit. (Around U.S. $ 53 in March 2007).

Then, came the economic crisis in 2008.  With the consequence that the global demand for oil has decreased by 6% in 2009.  The oil production had no problem to meet the demand. The barrel price decreased but only slightly.  Exporting countries are concerned that oil prices can fall too low and they decided to reduce their production.  But because of peak oil, they did not have to do it.  The balance between supply and demand will play its role perfectly.  Even during the economic crisis, the oil supply is barely able to reach the demand and the price of oil continued to rise after a peak above $ 100. The price falls to $ 30 U.S. in December 2008.

In 2009, oil prices continued to climb slowly but surely (around $ 75 U.S.).  The gap between supply and demand decreased every month in 2009 and this is reflected in the prices.  Also in 2009, for the first time, the amount of oil produced by OPEC countries decreased.  When the world oil demand will return to the same level as what it was before the economic crisis, what will happen to the oil price?

Yes you got it.  A new crisis looms on the horizon.  This is the beginning of the transition to our dependence on oil.

 

Peak oil in Davos: Oh yes it is, oh no it isn’t.

Submitted by Kjell Aleklett on Thu, 2010-02-04 20:38.

Kjell Aleklett, President of ASPO International

The title above was borrowed from the Financial Times. Last week the World Economic Forum in Davos celebrated its 40th anniversary and one of the sessions addressed the world’s energy security. The chairperson for the session was Daniel Yergin, the founder of CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates). Before his departure to Davos the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) wrote: “All the world loves a bringer of good news, so energy guru Daniel Yergin should by all rights be guaranteed a warm welcome at Davos this week”. The news that he bore with him was that “the awful day of ‘peak oil’, when the world will have depleted its finite hydrocarbon resources to the point where it can never again increase production, is still a long way off”. If, in fact, it becomes apparent that oil production actually reaches a peak then Daniel Yergin has a cop-out, “The big determinants (to global energy supply) are the above-ground risks — politics, the quality of decision-making, and costs and so on”.

It is now 9 years since Colin Campbell wrote the term “Peak Oil” for the first time in his first newsletter for ASPO (The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas) but it would be May 2002 before “Peak Oil” was used for the first time by the world’s press. I am convinced that they would never have discussed “Peak Oil” at Davos if the topic was not relevant. Of course, Daniel Yergin will never admit that “Peak Oil” is a geological reality and his statement in the WSJ shows that he has now found a suitable explanation for “Peak Oil”, namely problems above ground.

The fact that nobody from ASPO was invited to discuss energy security in Davos shows that they are not interested in anyone bearing unpleasant news. The fact that the journal Energy Policy accepted our paper “Peak Of The Oil Age” for publication last November could have been a good reason for an invitation but one never came.

The bearer of unpleasant news became, instead, Thierry Desmarest, the chairperson for Total. In his speech he said that oil production would never exceed 95 million barrels per day (Mb/d) and in his press release he clarified his view by saying, “peak oil is still a problem; it will be reached in ‘about 10 years’, but not today”. Total has previously mentioned 100 Mb/d and that they are now saying 95 Mb/d shows that they are approaching the conclusion that my Ph.D. student Fredrik Robelius presented in his thesis. That scenario had a maximal production of 93 Mb/d in 2018. The requirement for that level of production was that production from 7 giant oil fields in Iraq would commence immediately. The fact that this has been delayed makes it all the more difficult to reach that production level.

For the oil industry it is important to argue against “Peak Oil” since they need risk capital for future projects. The price tag that the CEO of Shell, Peter Voster, mentioned is “$27 trillion of investment over the next 20 years to meet demand (I hope the number is right)”. At the same time the chief economist at the IEA, Fatih Birol, expressed the opinion that he was doubtful whether it was sensible for the oil industry to make these enormous long term investments since “demand for oil from industrialized nations has already peaked”. Apparently, the reason for this was “the combination of improved fuel efficiency and the increased use of renewable energy meant demand for oil from developed countries would never return to the record levels seen in 2006 and 2007”. That may be true but the demand from developing nations will increase markedly. One can see that the IEA is preparing an explanation for “Peak Oil” that does not involve “depletion” of oilfields.

The strongest statement against Peak Oil came from Saudi Aramco and its head Khalid al Falih, “There is too much rhetoric in the public domain about moving away from oil”. I assume that ASPO is one of the actors he does not like. He does not believe that the world needs to worry about Peak Oil, “We feel that the whole issue that came to the surface and created a lot of concern about peak oil is behind us.” From the report of his speech it is also revealed that he is worried that investors will direct their money elsewhere than oil.

BP’s CEO Tony Hayward pointed out that there was a “supply challenge” for the industry which would have to increase output to 100 million bpd. Of course he wants production to be 100 Mb/d so as not to lose the prestigious bet with me that oil production in 2018 will be higher than 86 Mb/d.

A collective impression from the reports that I have read are that institutions and oil companies are assembling an explanation for Peak Oil that says that the resources exist but that the will to invest is lacking. Of course the scale of investment is important for future oil production but there is nobody that believes that investments in the USA can return its production to the level it was in 1970. The same applies for other nations that have passed Peak Oil, e.g. Norway, the UK and, recently, Mexico. The world’s oil production is the sum of that of individual nations and if all nations reach Peak Oil then the world will also be at/passed its peak of oil production. The most important message is that the world cannot increase oil production significantly – we have reached the “Peak Of The Oil Age”. It is this message that should have been delivered to the world’s leading politicians. Who knows? Maybe there will be an invitation to next year’s World Economic Forum in Davos?

 

Thor, God of electricity, saves us!

Oil production peaks have significant impacts on the demand for electrical energy. Heaters, stoves and water heaters will be replaced by electric equipment.  Natural gas peak follows closely oil peak.  Even if not yet reached, it is not far behind.  Demand for natural gas has increased dramatically and prices went up as always.  Many believe that we can use natural gas to replace oil.  And it’s true.  But not for a long period of time.  Few years that’s all.  The electric car is already in the parking lot in front of our houses.

How can we produce more electricity then? We use whatever is available, wind, coal, nuclear, solar, water, hydrogen, ethanol and others.  In 2008-2009 in United States, wind farms produced in average 50% more electricity than the previous years but it represents only 2% of the electricity production. (American Wind Energy Association.).  The wind energy in Canada has increased by 40% just in 2009.  The goal is to reach 5% of national electricity production (Canadian Wind Energy).  Electricity production is mainly generated by the force of water in Canada.  Hydropower accounts for 59% of production. The rest is divided between the nuclear 11%, 22% coal, natural gas, 6% and 2% other sources including solar energy, wind energy and oil (Source: Hydro-Quebec).

Where is the problem?

We will not be able to replace all the energy supplied by oil and natural gas by electric power as quickly as we want.  There are two reasons for that.  The first is that oil is a matter so dense that the energy extracted from it is so great that there is nothing like it in the world that can produce as much energy with the same amount of material.  A barrel of oil generates energy equivalent to the work of 12 people for one year.  This means that to produce the same amount of energy it takes a lot more than equivalent materials.  More coal, more water, more sun and more wind.

And we have these materials.  What we lack is the power generation capacity.  We need to build more power plants, but oil production goes down faster than the increase of our new electricity facilities.  What is the order of magnitude for Canada and United States? Some experts say 20 years, others say 30 years.  This is the transition period.  The time it takes to become independent of oil and gas.  The energy crisis will last a long time.  Even today, we are still dependent on oil to build power plants.

What will happen with electricity available? It’s not just the price that will determine who will use this power.  Some choices will need to be made.  Hospital will pass before factory.  Today almost all businesses use a sophisticated computer system.  Without electricity, what will happen to the manufacturing plants?

I know we existed before the computer takes control of everything.  Remember what we were doing at that time. Manual operations. You remember the one-write system? Carbon copies?

Many companies choose to build their own power plant close to their buildings. What they will use to power the turbines which generate electricity? A contingency plan will be needed in case of extended power outage to continue their operations.

Thor is the God of thunder. He can control the elements, lightning, rain and wind. The rain and wind are excellent to produce electricity.

Hydroelectric plants in the province of Quebec account for 94% of the electricity for the province.  The price is about 3 cents per kilowatt ($ 0.03 USD), the lowest price in North America and Europe.  This large capacitance is an economic advantage for industries. The energy becomes a significant cost to control, such as transport.  But Quebec still has work to do since 50% of its energy requirements are met by oil.  The province of Quebec is the place in North America that has the ability to become independent of oil faster than anywhere else.  Will we take the hammer of Thor to generate electricity to replace oil?

 

Where does oil come from?

The geological process of oil formation has long been known.  The oil fields that we use today were formed during two periods of global warming, as old as 90 and 150 million years ago.  At the time of dinosaurs.

At that time, the algae grew dramatically in the clear warm waters.  Large quantities were trapped in sediments on the ocean floor.  Captured in tanks surrounded by rocky matter, sediments were gradually transformed into oil by thermochemical reaction extremely slow.

Natural gas was formed just the same way from vegetable matters.  That’s the reason they are called fossil fuels.

Oil and natural gas are limited resources, meaning not renewable.

Two-thirds of world oil reserves are located in the Middle East whose primary producer is Saudi Arabia.  At this point there are ten times more than anywhere else in the world.

Today we produce several types of oil.  Amongst the main, there is the light oil, easy to produce, found mainly in the Middle East.  Extracting this oil costs between 1 U.S. $ and $ 4 US per barrel (* Source: Reuters and International Energy Agency).  A barrel of oil contains 160 liters.  The main producers are Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, the countries of the former Soviet Union and Venezuela.  There are also a few throughout other parts of the world including Africa and Arctic.  There is also oil from great depths off the coast of Norway and Mexico amongst others.  In deep ocean, sometimes you can dig 5000 meters below the sea floor.  Production costs are around $ 20.US (*).  But it is very deep, 27 times the height of Place Ville-Marie.  There is the heavy oil.  The largest heavy oil reserves are in Canada and Venezuela.  But its mining operations involve high production costs and major environmental problems.  It is the most expensive oil to produce, costs are about $ 35US per barrel (*).